Syrian Leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani: Reformer or Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing?

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa (Muhammad al-Jawlani), is the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian militant group that evolved from the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Jolani and HTS now control significant parts of Syria, including the capital city, Damascus. He remains closely associated with the ANF faction and its al-Qaeda ties, raising questions about governance, stability, and the group’s true intentions.

Al-Jolani has been working to persuade the international media and foreign powers that he has transitioned from a terrorist commander to a statesman, but skepticism remains about whether such a transformation is genuine. Even if his intentions are sincere, HTS does not control all of Syria. Power is shared with groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed coalition of rebel factions operating primarily in northern Syria.

During the recent offensive, elements of the SNA collaborated with HTS, aiding in the rapid capture of regions including Aleppo. The SNA, while not officially linked to ISIS or Al-Qaeda, includes former members of both and comprises various factions, some of which have relationships with extremist groups. Its operations are largely supported by Turkey, focusing on opposition to the Syrian regime and Kurdish forces.

As a result, even if al-Jolani seeks to establish a more moderate regime, he does not hold absolute authority over the territories under opposition control, limiting his ability to dictate the future direction of governance.

Under al-Jolani’s leadership, the al-Nusra Front (ANF) carried out numerous attacks in Syria in 2015, including the kidnapping of approximately 300 Kurdish civilians and the massacre of 20 Druze residents in Idlib Province. Al-Jolani had pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and its leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in 2013. That same year, the U.S. Department of State designated him as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224, imposing sanctions and prohibiting U.S. persons from engaging in transactions with him. The Rewards for Justice program currently offers a $10 million bounty for information on his activities.

Born in 1982, al-Jolani began his militant career fighting against U.S. forces in Iraq before returning to Syria to establish the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate. Over time, he sought to distance himself and the group from their extremist origins. Rebranding as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), al-Jolani positioned the group as a dominant force in the opposition against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This transformation included transitioning HTS into a local governing authority through the Syrian Salvation Government, which presented itself as more pragmatic compared to its extremist roots.

Now in control of significant parts of Syria, HTS claims to have shifted focus from global jihadism to local governance. Official communications emphasize inclusivity and pluralism, a shift reflected in al-Jolani’s public appearances, such as his address at Damascus’s Umayyad Mosque, where he underscored the importance of unity and rebuilding the nation. The group has also made overtures toward negotiation and reconciliation, including outreach to Kurdish groups.

As al-Jolani attempts to transition from a wartime commander to a statesman, he faces major challenges, including uniting a divided Syria, addressing the concerns of minority communities, and gaining broader acceptance. Some analysts liken his situation to that of President Zelensky in Ukraine, questioning whether he can evolve into a unifying leader amid Syria’s complex political and ideological landscape.

However, concern persists about HTS’s authoritarian tendencies and the depth of its ideological transformation. Concerns remain about Syria potentially becoming a haven for terrorist groups, such as remnants of ISIS. Amidst ongoing regional instability, the group’s future role in Syria and its ability to gain international legitimacy remain uncertain.

Al-Jolani’s trustworthiness and the authenticity of his transformation remain highly contested. Skeptics suggest that his rebranding efforts are more of a strategic maneuver to gain domestic and international legitimacy rather than a genuine ideological shift. Within Syria, various groups and individuals are apprehensive about al-Jolani’s intentions. Minority communities, in particular, fear potential marginalization or persecution under his leadership, given HTS’s Islamist roots.

A reporter from the Free Burma Rangers (FBR) on the ground in Syria observed, “Everyone is worried about what will happen in Damascus and how it will act with Islamist groups controlling the government.” She further noted that the Druze, “like the Kurds, Christians, and other minorities, are waiting to see what the situation will lead to and the form of the political transition, although they are inclined… toward a decentralized federal rule for the state.”

Additionally, secular activists and former regime supporters are wary of exchanging one form of authoritarianism for another. The international community also shares these concerns, debating whether to engage with al-Jolani’s administration or maintain a cautious distance.

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